The UN has passed this resolution, which effectively allows member states of the UN to patrol Libyan skies, keep Libyan fighter jets out of them, and if neccessary to bomb Libyan Army (as in Gadaffi's troops) targets on the ground. I've been mulling over the pros and cons of Western military intervention in Libya for a while now, certainly I'd hoped it wouldn't be neccessary and that, as in Tunisia and Egypt, once the people's protests had become widespread enough he would step down or at least attempt to negotiate some sort of power exchange. However, this was over looking the fact that Gadaffi is a psychotic basket case who dresses like Michael Jackson. Once he started putting all that lovely money we've been paying him for oil to good use and hiring shit loads of mercanaries to slaughter his own people the situation required a bit of a rethink. I had hoped that enough of the Libyan Army would join the Libyan people (how often does that happen right?) , being as the soldiers are Libyan people, that they would outweigh the mercenary forces and could put the old boot right up Gadaffi. That didn't happen either, and once it became clear, as it has been all week, that the rebels are too heavily outgunned to take on the crazy army it seemed pretty obvious that intervention was required to stop a total massacre from happening.
Anyhow, the resolution made, Gadaffi makes a quick u-turn and suddenly feels a bit more inclined to diplomacy. Which leaves us in a sort of limbo, while the UN can't really do anything unless Gadaffi attacks, and the rebels are restrained by the cease-fire as much as the government forces are. The initial hope was that the UN air forces would wipe out Gadaffi's armour and air power and that the Libyan rebels would then be capable of defeating what remained. However, it is questionable as to whether or not the rebels would manage that even with help, most of them not being professionally trained killers and all, although there's no doubt their odds of success would be much better. If the resolution had been passed at the start of the week the rebels might have had the strength to do it, so bad one UN for taking this long to reach a conclusion (blame; Germany, China, Russia and to some extent the USA).
As I said it's now a game of wait and see, with Gadaffi making the next move. Either he loses his nut and goes for the rebels again, in which case we can return to plan A, or he waits it out and hopes for an eventual settlement which could, who knows, see the country cut in two or a total return to power for him, neither of which would be preferable. Whichever scenario occurs, it could lead to western intervention on the ground, and this I think, unless it is to prevent absolute slaughter of civilians, would suck. If we could ensure that the ground forces simply went in, knocked the G man on the head and pissed off then maybe it would be passable. But the chances are, once they get there, they'll be sticking around to do things like 'rebuild the nation' and establish a 'healthy democracy' (along 'western lines'). It's at this point that Gadaffi ceases to be the enemy and western troops become the enemy. In case it's escaped notice white men with machine guns aren't the most popular people in the Muslim world right now. In order for nations such as Libya to have a healthy democracy, it has to be of their own people's making (it sort of says it in the name), and this means doing it themselves as much as possible, a la Egypt and Tunisia. It'll be interesting to see how this pans out, for now I'm wearing my rebel jersey and waving a big foam hand with 'optimism' written on it, with a little Libyan flag sticking out of the top.
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